It’s no secret that the cost of living has been creeping up year after year. But if you’ve looked into replacing a furnace, air conditioner, or heat pump recently, the sticker shock might feel a little more intense than expected. That’s because there’s a quiet force working behind the scenes that’s making HVAC systems more expensive across the board. Tariffs.

While most people associate tariffs with international politics, these trade decisions are directly impacting the equipment we rely on to keep our homes comfortable. The impact is already being felt throughout the HVAC industry, and Canadian homeowners are seeing the consequences.

Let’s unpack what’s going on, why it matters, and how you can make the smartest decision for your home in a changing market.

What Are Tariffs and Why Do They Affect HVAC Prices

At the core, a tariff is a fee that one country charges on imports from another. It is meant to support domestic production by making foreign goods more expensive. In theory, this encourages consumers to buy local. In reality, tariffs often raise prices for materials that are difficult to source domestically, and that’s where HVAC equipment gets caught in the middle.

Most furnaces, air conditioners, and heat pumps include steel and aluminum components. These metals are used in heat exchangers, casings, fan motors, and coils. When tariffs are applied to imported steel and aluminum, it drives up the price of these raw materials. That added cost doesn’t stay with the manufacturer. It travels down the chain from supplier to distributor to contractor and ultimately to the homeowner.

What’s more, HVAC systems often rely on parts from several countries. Even if the final unit is assembled in North America, components may cross borders multiple times before they arrive in your home. That means tariffs are stacked at multiple stages in the process, creating compounding effects.

What the Numbers Are Telling Us

Across the industry, insiders are sounding the alarm. Recent surveys show that manufacturers and contractors alike are bracing for HVAC equipment costs to climb significantly in the coming months. Forecasts suggest price increases between 20 and 40 percent for certain systems, with a notable portion of that rise directly tied to increased material costs.

Steel and aluminum tariffs alone have pushed production expenses higher. A projected seven percent increase in manufacturing costs might not sound dramatic at first glance, but it becomes a major factor when applied across thousands of units and a nationwide supply chain.

Distributors are paying more to source units. Contractors are paying more to restock. And consumers are being asked to pay the difference.

The Hidden Effects on Canadian Homeowners

For the average Canadian homeowner, these rising costs introduce new challenges. Replacing a broken furnace or upgrading to a more efficient air conditioner was already a big investment. Now it has become an even larger financial decision with more uncertainty than ever.

Here is what you might experience

• Higher price tags on furnaces, air conditioners, and heat pumps

• Fewer models in stock or longer wait times for the one you want

• Delays in service if your contractor has trouble sourcing parts

• Repairs that cost more than expected due to component shortages

Some homeowners are already shifting toward short-term repairs instead of full replacements, even when their system is outdated. Others are settling for lower-efficiency models because high-performance options are less available or too costly.

In some cases, homeowners may end up with systems that cost more to run in the long term simply because upfront affordability became the deciding factor. This can lead to higher utility bills and a more uncomfortable home over time, a tradeoff that many will regret.

A Disrupted Supply Chain

Part of the problem is that HVAC manufacturing is deeply interconnected across borders. Many North American HVAC brands operate facilities in Mexico or import parts from Asia. These operations depend on predictable shipping routes, stable materials pricing, and minimal interference at borders.

With tariffs in play, these assumptions are no longer reliable.

Some companies are trying to pivot by sourcing materials elsewhere or expanding domestic production. But shifting operations takes time and money. It also does not guarantee that the final product will be cheaper. In many cases, it might cost more.

In the meantime, delays are growing, inventories are thinning, and consumers are left navigating a market that feels more uncertain than ever.

Will Tariffs Actually Help Anyone

Supporters of tariffs argue that they protect local industries by creating a level playing field. And while that may be true in some sectors, the HVAC industry is not one where the benefits are evenly felt.

Many Canadian HVAC companies rely on imported materials to remain competitive. Tariffs make it harder for them to operate efficiently, especially when alternatives are limited or non-existent. In the end, these businesses are forced to raise prices, slow production, or cut back on services.

That ripple effect extends beyond homeowners. Contractors may delay hiring. Small businesses may struggle to keep up. And as affordability drops, demand for upgrades could decline, which slows the entire ecosystem.

What Homeowners Should Do Right Now

If your current system is on its last legs, waiting for prices to drop might not be the best bet. While it is tempting to hope things will level out, tariffs tend to create long-term shifts. There is no guarantee that prices will fall back to previous levels anytime soon.

Instead, consider these steps

1. Do your research on current pricing and availability

2. Compare energy efficiency and long-term operating costs

3. Look for Canadian-based suppliers who understand local challenges

4. Ask about warranties, shipping timelines, and system performance

5. Make a decision based on total value, not just upfront cost

This is a moment when being proactive can save you money. It can also help you avoid the stress of a breakdown during the peak of summer or the depths of winter.

A Smarter Way to Buy HVAC Equipment in Canada

We know how frustrating it is to shop for a furnace or air conditioner when prices are rising and options feel limited. That’s why we’ve built the Furnace Store to give Canadians a smarter way to buy.

We ship furnaces, air conditioners, heat pumps, and garage heaters anywhere in Canada, with zero shipping costs and no hidden fees. Every unit comes backed by parts and unit replacement warranties, and when you reach out, you’re speaking with real people right here in Canada, not a distant call center.

We also stand behind our lowest price guarantee and price match guarantee. So, while the rest of the market scrambles with tariffs and supply issues, we’re helping you stay one step ahead.

Here’s what you can expect when you shop with us

• Transparent pricing with no surprises

• Access to top-rated models and high-efficiency systems

• Fast shipping across Canada

• Support from Canadian experts who understand your region

• A team that’s ready to guide you, not pressure you

Make the Smart Move Before Prices Go Higher

The reality is, HVAC prices are climbing due to global trade decisions beyond your control. But that doesn’t mean you’re stuck waiting or paying more later.

We’ve helped homeowners across Canada lock in fair pricing and avoid delays by getting ahead of the curve. If you’re thinking about upgrading or replacing your system, this may be the best time to act.

Our entire catalog is available to browse online. You can compare models, check specs, and place your order directly through our website. We’ll ship it to your door anywhere in Canada, for free. No hidden fees, no middlemen, and no surprises.

If you’re ready to upgrade, skip the waiting and order online today. You’ll lock in your price, secure your equipment, and avoid paying more down the road.